AK-Sen: Begich Takes the Lead

Rasmussen (10/28, likely voters, 10/6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 52 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here it is: the first post-conviction poll of Alaska shows Stevens trailing Begich by 8 points. It’s a testament to Stevens’ strong popularity (and the redness of Alaska) that a man on his way to jail is still taking a share of the vote that large.

13 thoughts on “AK-Sen: Begich Takes the Lead”

  1. Seriously though, if this was Idaho or Oklahoma Stevens would be fine. I think 59 is likely now, the question left is whether Martin, Lunsford or Musgrove can become number 60.

  2. 52% of voters think Stevens should resign.  This ship has sailed.  Imagine if Larry Craig ran for re-election.  

  3. that if stevens wins, he will probably be kicked out of the senate, and there will be ANOTHER election?

  4. Mitch McConnell (KY):

    “I think he should resign immediately,” McConnell, Kentucky’s senior senator, told the (Lexington) Herald-Leader Tuesday night after a Hardin County GOP rally. “If he did not do that … there is a 100 percent certainty that he would be expelled from the Senate…The Senate would have zero tolerance for the continued service of a convicted felon.”

    Jim DeMint (SC):

    “Service in the Senate demands the highest ethical standards. Unfortunately, his conviction proved that he has failed to meet those standards and he should resign immediately.”

    Sunununununu (NH):

    “I believe it would be in the best interest of the Senate and the nation for Senator Stevens to step down.”

    http://community.adn.com/adn/n…

    Olympia Snowe (ME), closet homosexual Lindsey Graham (SC) Norm Coleman (MN) and Gordon Smith (Pea Factory) also joined the chorus, according to the AP.

  5. Should be likely dem, but this close to the election these rankings don’t matter all that much.

    It really is a testament to Stevens or the people of Alaska, that this isn’t a 2 point race.

    I’m guessing R2K and Ivan Moore will show this in the low double digits in there polls in the coming days.

  6. is that he will appeal the decision, be re-elected, and show to Alaskans that he’s an ethical guy.

    Ain’t going to happen.  He truly is driving on the “bridge to nowhere”.

  7. This poll was taken around 24 hours after the jury handed down the conviction verdict.  I think about 72 hours makes for more reliable results, but thats just me….

    IIRC the Republican baseline vote in Alaska is around 43%.  So Begich has a ceiling around 57%.  I suspect he will find himself able to live with that….  🙂

  8. I just realized something today.  If Stevens somehow wins and then resigned, Alaska would have to have a special election to fill his seat.  Does anyone doubt that if that happened, Sarah Palin would run in order to remain relevant on the national state?  I know that it is a long-shot, but I bet that this is a scenario some national GOPers have considered.  Stevens would face sure expsulsion if wins, so his resignation might then be compulsory, even if he would fight it tooth and nail.  That would be a doozy…

    If anyone is interested, this is something I just blogged on myself.  

    http://trumantolong.blogspot.c…

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